News
Wednesday February 22, 2012
-Summer is coming! Oil and gas is going to hit $120-150/barrel; as usual, gas and oil will be higher this summer. Blame Iran, blame Greece or just blame summer and the oil companies because it always happens
-Canola is on a run $556.90 at the opening bell this morning. Check your basis contracts and do some serious thinking especially for fall
-Chinese buying and domestic crush are drawing the market. Plus chart based buying has been really supportive of the price
-Hog numbers are up in North America; However, cattle numbers are down in North America
-Wheat followed corn and world supply
-Ocean freight rates are very favorable due to the slow down in World Economy
-Oats opened at $319.75 this morning, as they say "What is UP" with oats?
Monday February 20,2012 ( Family Day!
- If you like to live dangerously, " Developing Market" currencies have been doing well for ex. Swedish Krona
- US economy accelerating due to the job and housing data looking better.
- China cut the amount of cash that banks must set aside as reserves for the second time in 3 months to spur lending; this could be a signal that China's economy is heading for a sharper slow down?
- S & P commodity gauge is up slightly yesterday
- Bloombergs down slightly
- Iran is halting exports to France and Germany , causing a increase in oil prices
- More uncertainty, more gold goes up (your jewelry is really worth something!)
- US cattle futures rose to an all time high for "countem" 10th time this year!!
- CBOT closed today; no wait for a couple of days
Saturday February11,2012
- currency fluctuation dropped to its most stable level since mid 2008
- Global economy is improving
-This Greece thing is a pain, ....
-Again the infuence of China : Copper "down" because china imports slow down
- Wheat fell most on USDA report of World Wheat stocks are better than last year.
- Cattle futures fell to lowest level in 3 weeks based on slowing US demand
Tuesday, Feb.7,2012
- With US fed reassuring world that US interest rates will remain low for another couple of years .... gold '" bulls" up again.
- Pretty soon Chinese Yen will replace the US $ as " the currency " NOT likely but....!!!
- Bernanke speaks "things happen" in this case the US $ tanks
- US $ goes down other " stuff " like oil goes up.
- for what it is worth dep't
- Coca-Cola 4 quarter earnings fall 71 % same quarter last year but shares gained 1.3 % because case volume continued to rise
- GO FIGURE !
- To prove supply and demand cycle works - Forecasts of cold weather across US NE, natural gas prices go up!
- cold weather in Europe ... you guessed it, heating oil prices go up!!!
- CBOT wheat up. " Why you ask"? cold weather in Europe will affect quality and yield.
- US farmers projected to plant the most acres in a generation in 2012.
- A surprise to me - Global food costs are DOWN 11 % from a peak a year ago according to United Nations data.
- USDA first forecast of 2012 on Feb. 23
- CN wheat ( high protein ) still premium in the world.
-Canola still competively priced compared to soybeans : very important to China as China is the world's largest importer of oil ( soy and canola)
-Watch out for China to compete with CN crush for product.
HAVE YOU REGISTERED FOR OUR CANOLA MEETING THIS WEDNESDAY??!! It won't be the same without you! Call Cathy at 542-4235 NOW
Cathy attended the WHEAT SUMMIT in Saskatoon last Wednesday and Thursday ( Feb 1 & 2). Many groups with a stake in the future of Wheat were in attendance ( CDC, U of S, Bayer, Syngenta,Dow, Monsanto, Crop Life etc, ). The event was sponsored by the Gov't of Sask., Department of Agriculture . The reason for the summit was to investigate why wheat has lost it's popularity among producers, not just in Saskatchewan and Canada but worldwide. The concencus was that crops like canola, pulses, soybeans and corn have had major advances in yield and quality and have become much more profitable to grow. In some areas wheat has become merely a rotational crop. In order to feed the growing population of the world we are going to have to drastically improve our yields and find other means like better disease and insect resistance and better usage of plant nutrition to boost profitability. Major $ will have to be spent on plant breeding and agronomic improvement to make Wheat the King of Crops again! Saskatchewan is poised to be a major player in this process and the Gov't of Sask has pledged additional $ to jump start this activity. Looks like exciting times to be involved in agriculture.
Fedoruk Seeds is sponsoring the following informational seminars:
Canola - Information on CLUB ROOT MANAGEMENT Feb. 8
Barley - Malting contracts and others Feb.29
Wheat/Oats Mar. 14
Marketing and Seed Treatments Mar. 28
We would love for you to attend all seminars. There is no charge and lunch will be on us!! Please call Cathy @ 542-4235 and let us know if you would like to attend.
Tuesday January 31,2012 An interesting development that does not help commodity prices, although it loks like it would :
- glass is half full - US $ lower against emerging currencies.
- glass half empty - 15 emerging currencies are up 5 % against US $
- How many times have we heard " expectations are growing of a break through in negotiations over Greek debt swap deal."
- Sometimes" out with the old and in with the new" is a good thing.
- Brazilian choice " using sugar cane for sugar or ethanol" , either way your sweet tooth is going to cost you!
- The Ukraine is experiencing their coldest winter in 6 years( bad for them, good for us!)
- So goes the world
- Rains in Argentina and predicted for Brazil later this week will help their crop condition but not yield
- Fundamental supply/demand remains bearish in the world.
- In CN wheat still looks good and feed wheat as well.
- as any of you that want to snow know, there isn't any
- Canola demand remains high with domestic crush showing strong demand and China leading export demand.
- Crop rotation, think of the future of your land, think peas, malt barley
- US cattle inventory lowest in 60 years, this can not be bad for Cdn. beef producers.
- Total export of grain and oil seeds from CN this year up to 15.2 m mt from 14.3 m mt last year at this time
- Crush capacity 88.2 % year to date.
- commodity prices up...the result farmers take in more money... the results, inputs go .......UP
Friday, January 27, 2012
- US $ weakens because of the Feds not raising interest rates, influenced CBOT prices
- Low US $ had its desired effect of increased orders for US manufactured goods
- Ukraine production looks to be down in 2012
- Brazil and Argentina also lowered their crop estimates for 2012
-Thurs. CBOT grains mostly rose
- There needs to be something major to make markets move. They are "rangebound" at this point.
- Iran is a definate question mark as it is a very large importer, with lots of political implications affecting esp. the EU
- weather in Treasure Cay , Bahamas high 70's to low 80's for those lucky enough to be travelling there! ( my lucky daughter being one)
- Wheat eager to partner up in research (Western Producer)
Are you looking to convert some cropland to Forage? Did you know you could receive up to $ 32.50/acre to help cover the cost of seeding? All of this with very little red tape and conditions.Go to the following link or give Wade a call for more information.
http://www.assiniboinewatershed.com/what-we-re-doing/beneficial-management-practices
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
- *Warning* Glyphosate resistant Kochia now found in Western Canada.
- European milling wheat futures hit 4 month high, based on possible Russian limits to export and Argentina drought.
- Australian gov't said their wheat stock piles climbed to 24.6 mmt.
- Wheat basically unchanged because of above
- Cattle futures rose slightly higher as well
- as they say grain and livestock markets are trading " mixed" on Tuesday CBOT
- China is by far the largest single buyer of CDN canola mostly because of price but also oil yield
- as much as I hate to say it Viterra and its JV in China with a crushing plant is not hurting sales either.
- Flax is just flat out in trouble !! and not just for this year.
How does your RM rate for subsoil moisture? The following link displays the provincial data as of of November 2011. All I can say is what adifference a few miles makes !
http://www.agriculture.gov.sk.ca/Default.aspx?DN=8e6a92cf-fcd3-474e-8d98-7c2260a5ae99
Fedoruk Seeds will be sponsoring a series of information sessions on current matters that affect farmers. They will be held during February and March . We will be promoting them about two weeks in advance, as the exact dates have not yet been nailed down. Stay posted! Here is a list of topics that we will be bringing forward :
-Club Root in Canola It has been found in Sask. What can I do on my farm to prevent its spread?
- Malting Barley What should I know for the post wheat board era? Who will I contract my production with? Will it get easier to get my sample accepted?
- Wheat and Oats How has the game changed? Why are the" big guys" ( ie Bayer, Syngenta, Viterra) getting into wheat breeding ? What oat varieties should I grow? What qualities are the millers wanting now?
- Seed Treatments Why are the rules changing? Can I still farm treat? Should I buy it pre-treated?
Monday January 23,2012
-"for what it's worth", sugar is on an upward trend. so your sweet tooth s going to cost you more!
- coffee is down Ying/Yang
- U.S. wheat, corn, and beans export sales increased on lowered prices after USDA report and softer US $
- weather in S.A. is still key influence on grain and oilseeds.
- In Canada eyes now turn to seeding intentions.
- as of this A.M. Can $ almost at par. This will affect our prices. Having said this canola is back up to $ 526.00/tonne
Tuesday January 17
- world s & d will tighten up long term. Wheat demand will cause supply concerns, perhaps unpresedented
-demand for canola, both domestic crush and off shore with Chinese demand very much in play. If you don't have to sell don't, esp. today at $519/mt(Jan17am)
Week of January 16. -
- Traders looking for bullish news after last week.
- Feed wheat actually up, soft white wheat had a nice boost.
- Prices slid, money managers expanded net long positions
Rod and Cathy are back from an exciting trip to Russia over Christmas . A very eye-opening experience to say the least. So a belated Happy New Year to All!!
Here is the news for the week of January 9, 2012
- the optimism at this year's Crop production week in Saskatoon was palatable.
- the producers and the supporting ag businesses were optimistic about the future.
- CN $ down based on slower economic growth than forecast in the US.
- CN $ lost ground along with US $ againt other world currencies on the news that the EU debt crises is easing.
- mild winter and natural gas prices declining on s and d.
- off to Florida, the cool weather is turning around as evidenced that orange juice for March delivery dropped 14 %.
- corn and wheat plunged based on USDA supply higher than previously thought.
- Brazil and Argentina drought still a factor in S and D estimates.
- Ethanol futures fell most in previous 6 months on USDA reports of higher supplies of corn than forecast.
- all grains fell Thursday.
- Conversley cattle futures rose.
- Buckle Up! - it will be a fun ride the next couple of years!
As of Dec.21,2011
- nearly 1/2 of institutional investors fear partial break up of the Euro-zone
- potential moisture in S.A. and snow in southern plains of U.S. caused the loss of some weather premiums.
- crude oil futures rise and fall on any hiccup in the world. i.e. escalating violence in Kazakstan, better than expected U.S. housing starts
- Sugar prices are trending lower over higher world supplies, therefore Brazilian cane will move into ethanol
- Funny how all things are related in the World Market place
- Loonie is helped by energy prices and retail prices in October
- "They" say LaNina weaker than same time last year
- world wheat supply to be strong but again high protein will protect Northern Canadian farmers
- with the demise of the CWB, farmers will have to pay more attention to world market trends for supply/demand, also type of wheat that is in demand and by the customer
- Think Barley
World view Week of December 19,2011
- Approaching the holidays means general slowing down, funds inactive.
- Stock markets get choppy because of low volume.
- Everybody is watching weather in the Southern Hemisphere.
- CWB done Aug 1, 2011
- Viterra has opening bid for $ 7.25/ bu. CWRS/13.5P . Patience.
- all grains, canola and beans opened UP today
- EU is an ongoing problem
- CDN $ is down making our commodities cheaper
- Infrastructure problems plaguing former soviet Union
- canola crush margins remain good, not great
- CDN crushers at 92 % capacity for year
- Money managers were not long on cocoa and feed wheat
- Metal theft second only to terrorism as a concern for British " Bobbies"
-Both beef and pork futures rose today on Chicago Mercantile Exchange
- Russia joins WTO
- Grains, canola and beans closed up on the day
What's your plan for the future??
Attached is a really interesting video about the importance of farmers and the future!! Watch " The Canadian Seed Trade Has A Plan" on You Tube! Go to www.youtube.com/user/seedtrade2010 and watch an eye-opening experience!!
Not convinced the Midge -Tolerant Wheat Varieties are worth all the Hype??? Read the following attachment and you may change your mind!!
images/file/MTW%20Article%20Release_Nov2011_FINAL%20(2).pdf
Monday Dec.12,2011
- USDA S&D year end report had soybean supply up to 230 million bu. or 18 % with overseas market demand shrinking. US future prices will slip.
- Wheat expected inventories up 878 million bu. or 6%, the change was in large part to a 5 million bu. reduction in exports.- Bottom line: there are cheaper sources of wheat in the world than North America.
-Corn S & D remained static but corn down following wheat and soybeans.
-Funds reduced their "bets" on higher future food costs, however increased holdings in crude oil on signs that economic growth will be sustained.
- UN's Food & AG Organization said 55 food items fell 4% in Nov. World cereal production will climb 3.5% this year.
- Food price gauge has dropped 9.6% since reaching record in Feb.
CBOT
Canola opened today just under $500.00 mt.
Oats $300.00 mt.
CBOT wheat $ 573.00 mt.
K Wheat $ 653.00 mt.
M Wheat $ 843.00 mt
NEWS FLASH!! GLENN WHEAT has been added to the Warburtons’ identity preserved (IP) contracting program for the 2012 crop year. Check the link below for more info.
Better call us to book yours soon!!
images/file/November%25208,%25202011%2520-%2520Glenn%2520Warburtons.pdf
What are the most popular varieties of wheat and Barley grown on the Prairies this year?
Check out the link below to find out! Please note that this is just a preliminary survey with only a small number of farmers reporting. Where do you fit in?
Maybe it's time to update your variety. Check Fedoruk Seeds variety list. Many of the newer, more popular varieties are on our list. Phone us today for prices and find out about our year-end specials!!
images/file/2011%20Preliminary%20Variety%20Survey%20Results.pdf
World market Outlook Dec.8 2011
FRIDAY IS A BIG DAY - USDA Supply and demand comes out.
- EU meetings on Debt crisis.
A major North American potato chip company has contracted with JRI,LDM and Bunge for 1 billion lbs. of Canola oil - this translates to over a million acres of canola! This is just one company of many.
To show that the effect of the EU crisis affects us all - sugar and coffee are both on lengthy declines in World markets.
Wheat - sluggish exports, large Australian wheat crop, large CN 2011 crop weighing heavy on markets.
- high protein wheat still in demand, however.
Cattle - Beef prices have firmed as number of market ready cattle remains tight.
Want to know why certified seed is valuable to your farm and to farmers all across Canada? Go to www.seedforthefuture.ca and read how agriculture as an industry benefits from the use of certified seed!
World Market Outlook for week of December5, 2011
GROW BARLEY!! WHY? - CWB done
- World demand strong
- Australian crop not great because of rain threat.
EU - not much has changed.
Saudi Arabia has just bought 330 K.mt. of wheat from the west including Canada.
China has recorded a record corn harvest.
Wheat is still mixed with sluggish export demand, however wheat demand is still good.
Diesel fuel likely to keep going up through end of 2012 due to increased demand around the world.
Forage Meeting in Yorkton
Wade attended a forage meeting last Thursday and had the following observations:
- making Hay is still making Hay, it has not changed.
- there are new varieties to access.
- hay treatments available to bale hay at higher moisture levels and new equipment.
Buying or selling Hay?
- weigh bails to have some idea of volume
- test hay for what you perceive to be quality
1. protein
2. TDN
3. NDF
4. RFV
-trucking costs, who pays?
- visit www.saskforage.ca , a good web site loaded with good information!
Fedoruk Seeds has all of the varieties for Hay and Pasture needs!
Seed Outlook Week Of Dec.5
Rod and Cathy attended a SeCan meeting in Brandon MB last Friday. The consensus of those in attendance was the following:
Wheat - Carberry wheat seems to be in limited supply. If you are interested at all in seeding some this spring now is the time to book. By spring most seed growers will be in a sold out situation. Call today!!
Malt Barley - shortage of most 2 Row varieties ( Metcalfe, Copeland, Newdale). Call today!! Year end pricing now in effect!
Canola - A few varieties in short supply. Year end and early pricing options still available. Call Wade for more info!!
Financing Options :
Did you know that FedorukSeeds offers very competative financing options?? Through SeCan and FCC we can finance your seed purchases this spring.
We can also offer "interest free" financing through John Deere Financial (formerly AgLine) 'till March1, 2012 on your year-end purchases.
Visa and Mastercard are also available. Call Wade today for information .
World Market Outlook for week of Nov.28,2011
Canola - Exports and the crush are very good.
- Supply is tight.
- Crush margins are good, not great, especially when compared to 1 year ago.
Wheat - risk for wheat is export competition in short term. Long term looks like world supply will be tight.
Oats - Supply is short but will price go up because other cereals will pick up price short fall.
Malt Barley -Canadian supply remains underpriced.
The biggest news has to do with U.S. and E.U. politics and its effect on markets.
Heading into Christmas season there will be limited volumes bought and sold.
Wednesday - Central Bank around World to coordinate plan to support world financial system strengthened markets.
Mark Carnie
China's central bank eases monitary policy.
Cattle futures traded midly higher Wednesday.
Winnipeg commodity exchange change will start trading new wheat, durum, barley futures contracts next summer.
November 29,2011 Click on the link below to see the results of Fedoruk Seeds own Canola Trials. * Note that we have a column where we have the combine operator rate the ease of harvestablilty of each variety.*
images/file/2011%20Canola%20trial%20results.pdf
November 28, 2011
Fedoruk Seeds would like to welcome our new Marketing Manager, Wade Hainstock, to our staff. Wade has been busy trying to contact our customers to let them know about some of the exciting new varieties here at Fedoruk Seeds. Wade can be reached by e-mail at Wade@fedorukseeds.com, or by phoning 306-542-4235. Please call and let Wade tell you about our year-end specials on canola seed!
